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New York’s Covid-19 Surge Will Begin Around July 27th
Data from other states suggests that New York is far from safe
On April 30, 2020, the state of Georgia’s shelter in place orders expired. Rather than extend them, the state moved headlong into reopening, far earlier than most experts felt was safe. I predicted a bloodbath.
At first, things seemed to be going well. Epidemiologists waited with baited breath to see if the reopening would result in a massive flood of new cases. By mid May, it hadn’t. Articles started to appear, claiming victory and lauding Georgia for somehow restarting while avoiding a deadly increase in cases, and speculating about the various factors that may have been this possible.
Then all of a sudden, everything changed. Beginning around June 16th, the surge started. By early July, the state was logging almost 1,000 new Covid-19 cases per day.
A Delayed Surge
What happened? Covid-19 is generally believed to have a 5–14 day incubation period, the time lag between infection and exhibiting symptoms or testing positive for the disease. So public health officials had…
